Just as a note we're back on the normal cycle for Windows versions and their lifespans. XP lasted a lot longer than planned because Vista was delayed but for the most part the only wa Microsoft makes its money is when people either upgrade or buy a whole new computer with a new copy of Windows. The stability of XP let things grow a lot which I believe was accidentally beneficial but there is no incentive for Microsoft to stick with the same version of Windows for more than 3 or so years.
As to game menus I honestly believe it depends on the controller system. The Wii's pointing system is relatively easy for sighted users so that's likely to stay, but controlling a mouse-style pointer with an analogue stick is never going to be very efficient. Unless something is as fast, accurate and easy as a Wii remote's pointing or a mouse it's generally best to stick with the basic arrow method, but given the equal inaccessibility of things like Kinect it is a concern that more and more games may rely on motion based controls. The next generation of consoles, if they include these as standard, will just make things worse and worse. Sadly I don't see the mainstream companies listening in the slightest, even if it was as simple as allowing arrow navigation in menus and not making menus loop so we can actually get into the game to begin with.
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To live by honour and to honour life, these are our greatest strengths and our best hopes.