Blazie? LOL!

long message follows

Hard choices are coming to the US, that's for certain. Gas at $3.70 US and rising quickly. But - that is US dollars - that's what they tell us - I suspect the price has come up a bit in the UK - but has it trippled in 10 years?

The choices are really very simple, once the deficit gets so big it makes the choices for you/us. Governments do not go bankrupt, they go insolvent.

The rise in oil prices I think will slow this wagon train down quickly as that is a huge inflationary pressure in the US they have not come to terms with yet, nor do they suspect the avalanche effect this will have and it will not be immediately apparent and by the time the businesses and people and government come to terms with it some other slope will slip that is related to the economics of it. And it will get worse. The housing sub-prime fall out started the oil avalanche for the US I think - I think it is weakening US dollar - not just the price of oil that is happening. They tell you different - do they not know - or do they not want you to know - oh ha ha wa how ho - didn't you know? Why did the sub-prime thing get so big and how could it have gone so wrong and is the price of oil really tied to those events? I think so.

The value of the dollar is free floating and decreasing quickly and gets shakier as pressure is put to it.  It stalls here and there and abates its decline occasionally but its rate of decline is increasing rapidly. When it does pick up the pace, the deficit may get out of hand quicker than expected. I suspect the printing presses will not be able to keep up. I assume they expect it to get worse. The only reason I say that is it is getting bigger - not smaller.  So, when all of a sudden they are no longer able to make the interest payments on the deficit because taxes are not there because people are just trying to live and eat much less spend the precious little gift of money Bush gave us for thrift. All leaders will bail and point their fingers at the other party while the leaders try and work all of the only 3 things they can do at the government level = Drop or raise interst rates, print more money, or tax or not tax whatever makes sense, all to the effect of trying to not let the bubble burst on their watch.

Once the Japanese and Chinese stop tieing to the dollar it will get worse. Britan I think just started a bit of a recession thing going on. Is that right? Will this go around the world some? What will be interesting is watch gold prices.  If the dollar can not stick, it will go down in value more - but gold in US dollars will go up big time - it will take a ton more dollars later to buy the same amount (kind of like oil maybe?) - while maybe the UK looks on and says well the price did not change for us - oh look at the Yanks - they are in a bit of a pickle - their money is worthless. I don't know how bad it can get. An ounce of gold was $250 an ounce several years back and cheaper still a bit before that. It just pulled back 15% off of 1000 dollars an ounce just recently in US dollars.

As the avalanche gets further down the slope, it moves faster. So expect the dollar's decline to move faster is what I'm thinking. Oh, by the way - I'm buying gold. A bit of a Russian move I think.  When a few Russians figured the Rubel would collapse they made a big loan for lets say 1000 rubels - traded it for Francs let's say 1000 Francs - the rubel collapses and is worthless - they still have the 1000 rubel loan - they sell their Francs for 10000000 rubels now - pay off the 1000 rubel loan and have 9999000 rubels to spare.  Food has doubled and trippled and most other things too but locked in rubels - but they are now multi-millionaries (in rubels of course). I think gold is better than Francs, and I don't need a loan just yet, as I don't think it will get that bad. But you never know.

About every hundred years, bamboo flowers. All plants of the same species die. This looks very drastic, but after that, the seeds sprout and the plants regrow. As bamboo is the fastest growing plant on earth, it takes a year and all is back to normal.

*cough* the traditional feudal system didn't occur in Britain until at least 500 years after Rome collapsed, and that was because we were invaded by the Normans. Also Anglo Saxon steel was apparently unsurpassed until about 1000 years later in the industrial revolution.

Also just how civilised do you think the Romans were? And how do you define "civilisation"? There is more to civilisation than cities and public works, there are ethics and morality which the Romans lacked for just about their entire existence at least by our standards.

Blazie - saw the link. Sorry, I thought you were poking fun at Tony B.

The Feudal system was the first thing to replace the chaos after the fall that had any stability.  The Romans did lack morals and ethics but there was a wrong way and a right way too it. The Christians had the morals and ethics you speak of. The Romans didn't understand that I guess and feed them to the lions in the Collusium. The church survived and the rally cry of the Crusades beginning about 1000 AD began.  Your right. That is civilization for you. LOL!

CJ I don't think a Mad Max or The Legend scenerio will ever really happen.  Way too many people and they are all around the world. I think the first real proof of any threat of that kind will call for a rally cry from all nations to completely stomp out any other possibility. It may happen once. But that will be the only chance they get I would imagine.

I wonder where computers be at that time? I would think that they would be alot better, unless something bad happons.

Listen to the song "year 2525". Good tune CJ. Back from the sixties. So - been there done that - at least in music.

What you are speaking of is true AI (artificial intelligence). We are a long way off from any of that. But it is really needed to at least a small degree for continuation in our space efforts I think. I'm thinking something as smart as an ant would do the job.

Yeah this is a problem in the NL too. And I'm sure other countries will take over the technology that the US started on, so i do not see a problem in that. and if so, we might at most be a few years living with difficulty before the people in the other countries will get something done for us.

okay, well I would just like to note that countries would loose other things if the US collapsed even though we are embarrassing ourselves by outsourcing so much, but this has nothing to do with this topic
but now to be a hypocrit, I just would like to quickly say that alls we need to do is somehow find a way to stop the bulk of the illegal immigration, by guarding the mexican boarder and maybe setting up some kind of obstical   (s)
the immigrants that are here, illegal or not, can learn english when they or their children go to school, plus also in everyday life, I have a Spanish classmate and he picked up English extremely fast
Okay rant over

Interesting, at the moment I'm writing a timeline from 2010 to 3025 for a writing project, which is fun.

Of course, the plot calls for an extensive alien invasion in the year 2090, which devastates most of earth, ----- though after it's stopped does leave behind a lot of alien tech to exploit.

Back to reality though, I agree that the us collapsing would certainly be a long way from the end of civilization as we know it, ----- in fact I find it quite worrying that lots of people make this assumption, certainly it's not one I'd make about the Uk, and I find it quite easy to imagine most of the world going on reasonably happily if the Uk collapsed, ----- allbeit with a lack of hal, doctor who, etc.

I agree bad things will happen if the Us goes down certain routes, though for the economic side of things I would like to point out that alternative energy sources, electric cars etc are already available, it's just that with the various large oil companies buying up alternative energy research and attempting to make proffits from oil sales, they haven't had a look in yet and won't until oil becomes even more scarce, ----- which at current prediction it will (I've heard estimates of it running out in about 20 30).

A more worrying problem is the distribution of wealth across the world, and some of the things the world trade authority and the World bank have been up to, ---- and a friend of mine (who has a degree in geography), is fairly certain these will cause a war at some point in the next 50 years.

the thing I worry most about personally is paranoyer, paternalistic government policy (in the Uk as well as the states), and reduction in freedom. With some of the laws passed recently, and the amount of political power held by the government which is continually being used, the creation of totalitarian systems, ---- in the Uk and probably in the us as well is something I see as a worrying possibility.

In that sort of system, I'm worried what would happen to any group of potential inferiors, Blind people included.

On the other hand, at least people are watching out for this sort of thing.

Technology wise, it'll depend upon which way things go.

If things go the virtual control route, Blind people will have more problems, sinse the more realistic computer environments become, the less accessible they will be, and the difficult technology will be for them, --0--- look at the 3D windows displlay and windows arrow for an example of what I mean.

the ultimate end of this progression would be the holodeck on Startrek, which would be just as difficult for A Vi person to navigate as a real environment.

the other way would be neurological, ----- as is seen in the newuromancer novels, and more recently (with lots of reference to developement and moddern tech), Otherland by Tad williams.

this way has potentially the idea of more accessibility, ---- not the least because as a side line of that sort of research, cybernetic implants, like Geordi laforge's viser in Startrek would be more possible, ----- in fact Otherland does have a character who is blind, but is able to interact with virtual networks nerologically, ----- though Tad williams doesn't go into details.

Of course though, these depend upon good enough economic and social background to develope.

I'll leave people with one thought though. As reguards the roman empire, Ceasar apparently noted in his diary that the steam from a boiling kettle could push the kettle's lid upwards by pressure.

this is of course the beginning thought of steam power, and eventually combustion. the problem?

with so many slaves around to do whatever job needed doing, why bother building a steam engine.

to an extent, I think the same thing happens today, especially with companies concentrating upon what sells, or what is commercial viable, rather than what is useful, ---- but before I turn this into a left wing wrant I'll stop.

I'm sorry if you got the impression Cj that I implied that everyone in the Us is behind the bush government, ---- i know for a fact that's not the case, just as many people overhere are very much not! fans of the labour party and Gordon Brown.

I'd never suggest that, ---- especially with the comments from people here, not to mention some of my american friends here at uni.

In both us and Uk terms though, ---- and probably in all countries to some extent, there does seem to be a worrying trend in believing that their own country is the center of the universe, and so policy of their country's government is more likely to be right than others.

I've had people overhere tell me how shocked they are that people in Britain don't support the government more, and I've even heard people admit that people in other countries, ---- particularly in the Middle east and Asia need to "learn some good English sense" which is rather scary.

by the same tocan, I've run into americans on forums, ----- and also on the news who come out with statements like "americans are the defenders of the world"

the most amusing, ----- and rather pathetic example of this was someone writing a review of the second lord of the Rings film, and complaining bitterly about the name, ---- "the two towers" sinse in their opinion it was totally insensative given September the eleventh. the review included the comment:

"who does this tolkeen guy think he is, ---- you'd think he wasn't even american"

As for the government, I don't know. I try to vote for the lesser of two evils. The left seems to be as bad as the righte or the other way around depending on the way you look at it. They say they will do one thing to get your vote and do another. If this keeps on, I don't know where we would be. The main thing I want from someone is the truth. As for the ice age, I don't know. reminds me of al gore, but don't get me started unless yall want a flame war. In short, everyone messes up, and some lie. None are perfict. There is also the news. will it be one sided, or will it be two sided. will we have access to more info or less. Sorry about the politicks or should I say blood sucking ticks, oops.